Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives

Publisher:: Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Publication date:: 2010-07-08

Authors:: Jurgen Brauer
Benjamin E. Goldsmith
ISBN:: 978-0-85724-004-0

Latest documents

Chapter 10 Peace through trade? Econophoria in Northeast Asia
Purpose – This chapter assesses the extent to which ‘Econophoria’ (all problems seen as surmountable though development and economic growth) is justified with regard to the maintenance of peace in Northeast Asia where, despite ongoing tensions, outright war has been averted for half a century. Given that peace talks, international organisations and democratic dyads (alternative explanations for the absence of war) are in short supply, and in the context of regional economic ‘miracles’, the various economic peace mechanisms are addressed through analysis of Northeast Asian data.Design/methodology/approach – The impact of economic development in relation to war and peace is seen to operate at both the macro-level between states (trade, interdependence) and at a micro, transformative level within them. This chapter applies Northeast Asian data to each of the theoretical traditions of economic peace to assess whether there is sufficient fit to provide grounds for optimism and therefore econophoria.Findings – Owing to the limitations of socio-economic transformation and interdependence the impact of the spread of commerce is felt more at a socially constructed rather than rational cost–benefit level. Peace in Northeast Asia has not come through trade, but trade has facilitated improved conditions for the construction of a peaceful regional community.Originality/value – This chapter offers grounds for cautious optimism with regard to the relative stability of the peace regime in a region considered one of the most dangerous in the world. However, it also warns levels of economic development and interdependence which are insufficient to take an econophoric determinist stance.
Chapter 12 Economic integration, economic signalling and the problem of economic crises
Purpose – This chapter draws on several areas of scholarship to consider the impact of economic crises on the utility of economic costly signalling theory (ECST).Design/methodology/approach – The chapter introduces the problem of economic crises into the debate over ECST to better understand its practical utility. It first highlights the pacific benefits anticipated by ECST to provide a conceptual baseline. It then reviews contemporary economic and political science literature that links economic integration, economic crises and external conflict. Finally, it introduces a perspective on how the conditions created by economic crises reduce the ability and willingness of states to send economic costly signals.Findings – The chapter finds that the value of ECST to security policy is problematic when considering the occurrence of economic crises.Originality/value – This chapter advances the debate over capitalist peace theory by introducing the problem of economic crises to the discourse.
Chapter 13 Terrorism, targeted economic sanctions and inadequate due process: the case of the Security Council's 1267 sanctions regime
Purpose – The chapter seeks to contribute to the discourse concerning the United Nations Security Council's role in strengthening a rules-based international system and maintaining international peace and security under the rule of law. Its particular purpose is to examine the Security Council's Al-Qaida and Taliban sanctions regime (1267 regime) from a rule of law and due process perspective.Methodology – To this end, the chapter reviews the 1267 regime's controversial listing and de-listing procedure and identifies shortcomings in relation to traditional due process guarantees. It then discusses reform options available to the Security Council as far as forms and modalities of an effective review mechanism are concerned.Findings – The chapter has two main findings. First, it concludes that the ‘individualisation’ of Security Council sanctions in terms of targeting individuals directly has not been accompanied by the creation of a means for the new targets to appeal the measures imposed on them. Second, it finds that a lack of political will has so far prevented comprehensive reform of the 1267 regime but that such reform is becoming increasingly urgent. The chapter suggests that reform initiatives need to address the value, effectiveness and sustainability of the 1267 regime more broadly. The Security Council, in particular, needs to consider what it is prepared to give up to maintain the 1267 regime as an effective UN sanctions regime, or whether it is prepared to give up the 1267 regime to maintain the authority it interprets to have from the UN Charter.
Chapter 9 The Collier challenge: how can reliable transitional financing systems be created in ‘barely functional’ states?
Purpose – This chapter uses the work of Oxford economist Paul Collier to explore the conditions under which financing systems can be created to support the governance and economies of fragile states. This support is especially needed in the immediacy of a crisis or as a practical strategy to potentially change the dynamics of a particularly vulnerable state. The focus is on his 2008 proposal for Haiti, for a partnership of domestic and international financial institutions. Central to the proposal is the establishment of an Independent Service Authority (ISA) to fund and implement government policy, especially in delivery of basic services. Representatives from aid donors, Haitian expatriates or diaspora and members of the government would sit on the ISA board, sharing responsibility for effectively administering public funds. This model was proposed to the United Nations in late 2008 to stabilise and transform the government and economy of Haiti (Collier, 2008, 2009b).Methodology – The chapter explores the issues raised in the model using a case study of the Regional Assistance Mission in the Solomon Islands (RAMSI).Findings – “The work concludes that the RAMSI process worked well to stabilise financial systems and survived significant political challenge due to a framework of local agreements, regional or international resolutions, treaties, statutes and contracts. This suggests that such a framework will help to ‘buttress’ any mixed local–international financial institutions in the event of domestic political or legal contest in Haiti (or wherever else this model is considered).Limitations – The chapter does not compare Haiti and the Solomon Islands as societies or economies, or go into the details of how the proposed financial institutions would operate and transition to other arrangements. Space also prevents consideration of the other international partnership models applied in Haiti from 2006–08 (e.g. the Haiti Economic Governance Reform Operation or EGRO; see the case study on Haiti by Bradford and Scott (forthcoming), 76–84). After the earthquake in January 2010, Collier re-visited Haiti and stressed the importance of longer-term economic transformation (a Haiti Marshall plan) as well as emergency relief.**Collier, P., & Warnholz, J.-L. (2010a). Haiti earthquake: Social and economic fabric must be rebuilt too. The Guardian, Sunday, 17 January. Available at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/17/haitiearthquake-social-fabric-rebuilt; Collier, P., & Warnholz, J.-L. (2010b). We need a Marshall plan for Haiti. Globe and Mail, 13 January. Available at http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/we-need-amarshall-plan-for-haiti/article1430309/ A key element of the international community's assistance will be finding mechanisms to handle finances. However the details of the new proposals are yet to be made public, hence this chapter focuses solely on Collier's 2008 proposals.
Chapter 14 Compensation for civilian casualties in armed conflicts and theory of liability
Purpose – The purpose of this chapter is to highlight the current limitations in compensating the civilian victims of armed conflicts and to examine the possibility of extending this practice.Methodology/approach – The first half of the chapter employs legal and political analysis of the current framework of international law and the practice of the United States. The latter half of the chapter examines the literature on theory of liability in economics and philosophy.Findings – The framework of international law, which does not require compensation for the victims of lawful attacks, is increasingly at odds with the current trend in which military force is used by a powerful state against a much weaker state on the grounds that the local population would benefit from the operation. The system developed by the United States is the most extensive and can form a model for other states and international institutions. Keating's analysis of enterprise liability can be applied to compensation of victims in military operations that are deemed to be beneficial to the population. Economic analysis, on contrary, suggests that compensation of civilian victims has minimal effect on the level of risks.Originality/value – This chapter makes a unique contribution by applying theory of liability to a situation that widely diverges from the context in which the theory has developed. It critically examines the current practice and proposes a morally preferable and economically sustainable alternative model.
Chapter 7 Great expectations: Prospect theory and oil price volatility in Iran
Purpose – This chapter examines the impact of oil price volatility on domestic political stability in a key supplier state.Methodology – This chapter uses prospect theory to analyse socio-political instability based on significant changes in a supplier state's largest revenue source. Prospect theory posits that decisions are framed around a pivotal reference point which may or may not correspond to the status quo, but which nonetheless directly affects risk appetite. This analysis uses Iran as a case study, and relative oil price as the reference point to analyse risk-acceptant decision-making surrounding the 2009 Presidential election.Findings – Dramatic economic context could be a contributing factor to risk-acceptant behaviour in domestic politics. Specifically, volatile price swings in Iran's main source of income, oil, which contributes over 80 per cent in direct and indirect revenue, and perceived external decline therein, may have been a destabilising factor. Combined with loss aversion, this context may have facilitated measures beyond those dictated by rational utility calculus to secure conservative rule in the 2009 election, and in the ensuing unrest.Research Limitations – Prospect theory is difficult to test outside of carefully framed laboratory experiments. Although its insights have been applied to investment behaviour, management and domestic politics, in conflict studies, robust empirical support remains underdeveloped. Moreover, since prospect theory is an individual model of decision-making, difficulties arise when dealing with nation states with multiple centres of power.Implications – Prospect theory may be a useful analytic tool for analysing risk-acceptant decision-making in the context of dynamic economic situations.Originality – Although this analysis complements research on rentier state theory, prospect theory integrates recent developments in behavioural economics and political psychology that may offer a new way to conceptualise the role of expectations and choice framing in decision-making which drives political stability.
Chapter 3 Privatising military prisons: The case of the United States
Purpose – This chapter aims to contribute to the policy debate on private sector involvement in traditionally core defence activities through rigorous economic analysis. Punishment and correction in the US military prisons have traditionally been considered as a core activity that has been governed, regulated and managed by the military service personnel. It has been shown however, that military facilities such as stockades and brigs have often failed to meet their correctional objectives – a quality issue.Methodology – The chapter constructs a case study to illustrate the method of analysis. Well-trained and motivated military custodial personnel play an important correctional role but are not available in sufficient numbers in military prisons. It is therefore proposed to source these services through the private sector. Specifically, the chapter proposes that private sector providers should provide custodial personnel for stockades and brigs. Traditionally the private sector has been employed to reduce costs, rather than improve quality. This chapter adapts and applies the framework developed by Hart, Shleifer and Vishny (1997) to study the governance model and incentive regime that could enable the use of the private sector, reduce the risk of excessive cost cutting and enable quality outcomes to be achieved.Findings – This chapter argues that private sector involvement could effectively increase the contestability of supply.Implications – The chapter demonstrates the scope for private sector involvement to increase quality, rather than just decrease costs. It follows that the private sector can contribute to core national security outcomes. However, this implication needs significantly more exploration for specific contexts.Value – The adopted mode of analysis provides a template for rigorous analysis of similar proposals in the future.
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