Chapter 15 Economic factors in peace and war: A discussion

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/S1572-8323(2010)0000014019
• Pages: 263-282
• Published date: 08 July 2010
• Date: 08 July 2010
• Author: Benjamin E. Goldsmith

CHAPTER 15

ECONOMIC FACTORS IN PEACE

AND WAR: A DISCUSSION

Benjamin E. Goldsmith

ABSTRACT

Purpose – The main purpose is to provide ideas about an intellectual

framework for considering the role of ‘‘economic factors’’ in conf‌lict and

to suggest some potentially useful future areas of research. I selectively

reference some relevant f‌indings from the other chapters in this volume.

Methodology/approach – This chapter is speculative, but raises

important issues. It might seem that economic factors should be considered

‘‘hard’’ constraints on the dynamics of large-scale conf‌lict and peace,

whereas political factors are ‘‘soft.’’I propose the opposite. I argue that we

should consider political factors as causally primary and economic factors

as contingent on them. I present statistical analyses that call into question

some recent research on the apparent primacy of economic factors in

international conf‌lict.

Findings – These models challenge a strong belief in the primacy of a

‘‘capitalist peace’’ or ‘‘economic peace’’ over political factors such as

democracy. But my purpose here is no more than to suggest that this is a

promising area for further inquiry. Economic factors are of course hugely

important, but they are f‌iltered through norms and institutions, which are

political creations. If the basic logic of my thinking holds, similar results

would be obtained for studies of civil conf‌lict initiation and escalation.

Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives

Contributions to Conf‌lict Management, Peace Economics and Development, Volume 14, 263–282

Copyright r2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited

All rights of reproduction in any form reserved

ISSN: 1572-8323/doi:10.1108/S1572-8323(2010)0000014019

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Originality/value of paper – This chapter raises the issue of the

appropriate place of economic and political factors in understanding

organized conf‌lict at various levels of analysis. It suggestshow the chapters

in this volume help advance thinking about the relationship between

economic factors and conf‌lict in this context and provides some novel

empirical results to suggest the plausibility of the argument that economic

factors may be less theoretically fundamental than political ones.

The main purpose in this chapter is to provide ideas about an intellectual

framework within which to consider the role of ‘‘economic factors’’ in

conf‌lict and to suggest some potentially useful future areas of research based

on these ideas. I see this chapter as speculative, but raising important issues.

Although it might seem that economic factors should be considered ‘‘hard’’

constraints on the dynamics of large-scale conf‌lict and peace, whereas

political factors are ‘‘soft,’’ in the sense that they are malleable and vary with

the context, I propose the opposite. I argue that we should consider political

factors as causally primary and economic factors as contingent on them, in

the processes that lead to organized violence within and between societies

such as states. However, although I favor this argument, I am more

concerned to point out the theoretical importance of the issue for conf‌lict

analysis and to begin to sketch the logic on both sides.

I selectively reference the f‌indings from the other chapters in this volume,

when they relate to the themes I address, and place them in perspective by

suggesting how they contribute to existing knowledge about the roles of

economic factors in domestic and international war. Because organized

violent conf‌lict within and between states has complex causes, it is especially

important to clarify as much as possible the theoretical hierarchy of

different types of factors. Empirical analysis, statistical or qualitative, must

be theory driven to provide valid tests of causation. But with so many

factors to consider, and so many potential ways in which causal processes

might unfold, there is a danger that analysts will focus on their favorite

models among competing, and equally statistically signif‌icant, f‌indings

(Beck, King, & Zeng, 2000). Thus careful theorizing about the causes of

various types of conf‌lict is essential, even as our data, analytical tools, and

bank of cumulative f‌indings become more sophisticated. The chapters in this

volume are helpful in this regard, because they suggest a range of new ideas

or new applications of existing concepts. In this chapter, I attempt a further

modest contribution by focusing on the issue of the relative position of

economic and political factors in conf‌lict processes.

BENJAMIN E. GOLDSMITH264