The education equation: what Australia needs to do to grow its education exports.

• Position: Education - IDP Education Australia report summary

Australia's international education sector could have close to one million students by 2025, but needs to overcome several hurdles in order to live up to its potential.

Latest research by IDP Education Australia, an education and development services body owned by 38 of Australia's 39 universities, has forecast that by 2025, the total demand for international higher education in Australia will be more than 996,000 students--an astronomical number compared to present day levels of about 160,000 students.

But if any export sector were to record that meteoric a rise, then education would be it. Starting off from negligible levels in the early 1990s, Australia's education sector has grown into a massive industry that was worth $4.2 billion in 2002. Early forecasts for 2003 have pegged an increase to up to $5 billion. Australia has forged a reputation for being a safe and "value for money" destination for international students, and now accounts for three per cent of overall global demand.

Potential

IDP chief executive Lindy Hyam admits that the figure of 996,000 international students by 2025 may seem bullish, but is indicative of the massive potential the sector holds.

"We did a similar study in 1996, and we were proven to be very much on the mark with our growth figures, and in fact underestimated in some cases," she said.

"The challenge for Australia is going to be managing that growth effectively and positively, and ensuring appropriate community and government approaches and policies. Those figures are extremely high, but they do provide a platform for planning."

According to IDP's forecasts, contained in the study Global Student Mobility 2025, transnational or offshore programs will account for 44 per cent of demand by 2025, with onshore making up the rest. Asia will continue to be the main source of students, with demand from Asia growing to 92 per cent by 2025...