Global warming--myth, threat or opportunity?

• Author: Starck, Walter
• Pages: 43(5)

The most critical problem we face is not global warming, or how to make fuel more expensive so we will use less, but providing enough at affordable prices to keep our economy going until alternatives can become reality. The Lucky Country has the choice between disaster and a unique opportunity.

Climate change looks more and more like becoming a catastrophe we inflict upon ourselves in trying to avoid one we have only imagined. The theory of catastrophic global warming due to [CO.sub.2] emissions rests on two fundamental elements. One is that [CO.sub.2] absorbs infrared radiation. The other is that interactive computer models of climate have been constructed to show increased warming with increased [CO.sub.2]. However, a couple of dozen different climate models all produce differing results in accord with the assumptions and estimates they each incorporate.

While the absorption of infrared by [CO.sub.2] is undisputed, the amount of such heating on global climate is highly uncertain. There is good reason to think it has been greatly overestimated. The current understanding on which the climate models are based is very incomplete. As for the widely publicised catastrophic consequences of warming, these are not even predicted by the models but are only speculations regarding such warming.

Complex interactive models can be constructed and adjusted to produce any desired result. Without verification they reflect only the ideas on which they are based. The famed mathematical physicist and father of cybernetics, John von Neumann, once said: "If you allow me four free parameters I can build a mathematical model that describes exactly everything that an elephant can do. If you allow me a fifth free parameter, the model I build will forecast that the elephant will fly."

Those who claim a high degree of scientific certainty regarding global warming can only be woefully uninformed, overly impressed with themselves or less than honest. There are serious doubts and uncertainties about every aspect. The fundamental radiative physics involved in the complex and variable mix of gases and conditions that comprise the global atmosphere is far from clear. The distribution of heat through the myriad pathways of atmospheric and oceanic circulation is only poorly understood. The innumerable interactions and feedbacks involved in this immensely complex system have only barely begun to be recognised, much less understood well enough to be accurately modelled.

In contrast to the virtual world of computer simulations, real world evidence presents a very different picture. To list but a few key facts:

* Hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific studies from all...