Sensitive Intervention Points for Australia's Transition to Net‐Zero Emissions

• Published date: 01 December 2024
• Author: Kimathi Muiruri,Anna Skarbek,Penny Mealy,Cameron Hepburn
• Date: 01 December 2024
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12580

The Australian Economic Review, vol. 57, no. 4, pp. 387–400 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12580

Policy Forum

Sensitive Intervention Points for Australia's Transition to

Net‐Zero Emissions

Kimathi Muiruri, Anna Skarbek, Penny Mealy and Cameron Hepburn

Abstract

Australia is not on track to meet its obliga-

tions under the Paris Accord. How can action

to achieve net zero be accelerated? Here, we

apply the concept of ‘sensitive intervention

points’and consider six potential interven-

tions that could have a disproportionate

impact on Australia's progress: (i) a national

plan to clarify direction; (ii) a national net‐

zero authority to coordinate efforts; (iii)

support for a set of nationally significant

projects in particular places; (iv) an indus-

trial policy response akin to the US IRA; (v) a

standard for the construction industry; and

(vi) a requirement that companies develop

net‐zero plans. Individually and collectively,

we argue that they could plausibly accelerate

Australia's trajectory to net‐zero emissions.

1. Introduction

Humanity is on a ‘highway to climate hell with

our foot on the accelerator’, according to the

UN Secretary General (who obviously knows

some classic Aussie rock music) at COP 27

(Frangoul 202 2).

1

The situation is now very

serious. Temperatures are at unprecedented

highs; fires, floods, droughts and hurricanes are

all breaking various records (W MO 2024). The

time of an Earth day now needs adjustment,

because melting ice from the poles to the

equators has slowed our planet's rotation

(Agnew 2024) (just as a spinning ice skater

slows themsel ves by throwin g their arms o ut

wide). Perhaps the most arresting fact is that

these impacts are a mere tasting morsel

before the carnage ahead.

Despite current and looming climate dis-

asters, action to reduce emissions has yet to

match the speed and scale pledged. We are far

from on track to achieve the goals set out in

the Paris Climate Accords of 2015. The IPCC

(2023) noted that, despite heightened global

commitments to action in recent years, global

greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions implied in

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

will likely be insufficient to limit warming to

1.5°C in the twenty‐first century. Equally

pressingly, there remains gaps between emis-

sions projections based on commitments made

in NDCs and forecasted emissions based on

implemented mitigation actions and policies

(IPCC 2023).

Like many other countries, Australia is not

yet on course to fulfil its responsibilities under

*Muiruri: Blavatnik School of Government, University of

Oxford, Oxford, UK; New College, Oxford, UK;

Skarbek: Climateworks Centre at Monash Sustainable

Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne,

Victoria, Australia; Mealy: Smith School of Enterprise

and the Environment, and the Institute for New Economic

Thinking, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Monash

Business School, Monash University, Melbourne,

Victoria, Australia; Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New

Mexico, USA; Hepburn: Smith School of Enterprise and

the Environment, and the Institute for New Economic

Thinking, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; New

College, Oxford, UK. Corresponding author: Hepburn,

email cameron.hepburn@smithschool.ox.ac.uk

© 2024 The Author(s). The Australian Economic Review published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of The University of

Melbourne, Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, Faculty of Business and Economics.

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative CommonsAttribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in

any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.