Would the WTO survive a Doha failure.

• Position: WTO REPORT

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The protracted Doha negotiations signal considerable difficulties in reaching a successful conclusion of the Round. While I do not share pessimistic sentiments of many journalists and even negotiators, there is a growing number of observers who consider a failure of the negotiations as a distinct possibility. Even though the public is frequently told about progress in the negotiations, many of us are increasingly wondering whether the bursts of optimism of negotiators are not simply for public consumption rather than reflecting the reality. Most of us have indeed heard those expressions of optimism too often to change our cautious views. The uneasy collaboration of US Democrats and Republicans in the US Congress, the difficult position of president Bush in negotiating the "fast track", the fundamental difficulties of the European Union and the Americans to make additional concessions in agriculture, the inflexible position of some increasingly powerful developing countries make it difficult for outside observers to believe that a successful conclusion of Doha negotiations is in sight. On the technical level, the negotiators have made a considerable progress which in some cases has been remark able. However, the successful conclusion of Doha negotiations is critically dependent on political decisions affecting primarily agriculture, concessions of developing countries and, at the same time, satisfying the "development "objective of the Round. The prospects for a successful conclusion of Doha negotiations are not brilliant even though most us continue to believe that something positive will come out of the present stalemate. But that this will not happen soon.

WTO would survive a Doha Failure

In this context one must ask the question--would...