Risk and protective factors related to offending: results from a Chinese cohort study.

• Jurisdiction: Australia
• Author: Taylor, Terrance J.
• Date: 15 December 2004

Recent research has illustrated the importance of risk and protective factors on offending. The current study examines survey data from a sample of 81 offenders and 81 nonoffenders residing in Wuhan, China, in 1991/92 to determine how the accumulation of risk and protective factors in various domains differentiates offenders from nonoffenders. Specifically, we examine the importance of multiple causation and cumulative effects of risk and protective factors as they apply in a Chinese context. Results suggest that the risk and protective factor approach often used in studies of western offending also holds promise in studies of Chinese offending. Specifically, our findings support the importance of examining multiple causation and cumulative effects of risk and protective factors as related to offending. The findings also suggest that the risk and protective factors found to be important in China may be somewhat different to those identified through studies conducted in the West, illustrating the importance of recognising historical and cultural context in the risk and protective factor paradigm.

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Recent criminological efforts have attempted to outline risk and protective factors of criminal offending in hopes of developing successful prevention and intervention programs. While early research into the 'causes' of delinquency tried to identify the factors most associated with becoming delinquent (e.g., Glueck & Glueck, 1950) or inhibiting involvement in delinquency (e.g., Hirschi, 1969), Hawkins, Catalano and Miller (1992) have introduced the notions of risk and protective factor approach within the criminological discipline. Their early work drew on the emergent research in the fields of public health, which has since been expanded (Kazdin et al., 1997; Kraemer et al., 1997; Mercy & O'Carroll, 1988) to identify factors that enhanced or ameliorated the odds that an individual would misuse alcohol and illicit drugs in adolescence and early adulthood. Their efforts also provided a foundation for efforts to apply criminological theory in developing successful prevention practices (Hawkins, Catalano, & Brewer, 1995). Since that time, efforts have turned to identifying and categorising risk and protective factors for a number of misbehaviours, especially serious, chronic and/or violent behaviour (for extensive reviews, see the works of Howell et al., 1995; Loeber & Farrington, 1998). Many of the identified risk and protective factors come from longitudinal studies conducted in the United States (Denno, 1990; Elliott, Huisinga, & Ageton, 1985; Gleuck & Gleuck, 1950; Hawkins et al., 1992; McCord & McCord, 1959; Polk et al., 1981; Robins & Wish, 1977; Shannon, 1988; West & Farrington, 1973; Wolfgang, Figlio, & Sellin, 1972); England, Wales and Scotland (Farrington & West, 1993; Ferguson, 1952; West, 1969; Wilkins, 1960); Scandinavia (Christiansen, 1964; Guttridge et al., 1983; Magnusson, Stattin, & Duner, 1983; Wickstr~Sm, 1985); and Germany (Pongratz et al., 1977; Traulsen, 1976; Weschke & Krause, 1983). To this point, however, only one such cohort study has been conducted in a developing country (Puerto Rico; Nevares, Wolfgang, & Tracy, 1990).

Data for the current project were collected as part of a study initiated by the late Marvin Wolfgang in 1989 and later by Friday, Ren and Weitekamp (2002). Working with the China Society for Juvenile Delinquency Research, Wolfgang initiated an ambitious project to collect information from police records on a birth cohort for a population born in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in 1973. The original cohort as designed by Wolfgang and his Chinese colleagues consisted of all persons in the Wuchang District of the city of Wuhan who were born in 1973. (1) While some basic descriptive information documenting the low offending rate and basic characteristics of the sample was published in Chinese (Xu et al., 1994, 1996, 1997), Wolfgang passed away and much of the cohort data he had originally collected was sadly lost before any substantial analysis of the data.

One component of the original Wolfgang data collection was retained, however: surveys were completed by all 81 offenders identified in police records and a matched group of 81 nonoffenders. The present study examines this survey data to examine two specific research questions. First, what are the risk and protective factors for offending and are they different from those identified in western studies? Second, what are the relationships between the risk and protective factors associated with offending? Specifically, how much overlap is there between the risk and protective factors identified in the Chinese birth cohort?

We begin by discussing previous research, which has used the risk and protective factor approach for studying juvenile delinquency. Since this work has been mainly conducted in western countries, we then turn our attention to an examination of the uniqueness of the Chinese social context, as this presents an important contrast to the current research. We next provide a description of the methodology employed in the Wuhan study and examine the empirical support for our main research questions. We conclude by elaborating on the implications that the current study has for future research on cross-cultural approaches to the risk and protective factor paradigm.

Literature Review

RISK AND PROTECTIVE FACTORS RELATED TO JUVENILE DELINQUENCY

Some disagreement exists as to how risk and protective factors are to be conceptualised and used (Farrington, 2000). For example, Friday and Hage (1976) separated risk factors into three main categories: individual, institutional (including family and school factors) and structural (including neighbourhood, social class and economic conditions). Others (e.g., Howell, 2003) suggest that risk and protective factors may be grouped into five distinct domains: individual, family, school, peer and community. Still another approach is to examine the time in which the risk and protective factors occur in relation to the outcome of interest. Kraemer and colleagues (1997), for example, differentiate between correlates (those factors which occur simultaneously with the problem behaviour), predictors (those which occur before the problem behaviour) and causes (those which have been found to be amenable to change). Regardless of the classification system used, however, risk factors may be conceptualised as factors associated with an increased probability of delinquency, while protective factors may be conceptualised as factors associated with a decreased probability of delinquency.

Previous studies have attempted to synthesise the voluminous risk and protective factors identified in longitudinal research projects. Lipsey and Derzon (1998), for example, conducted a meta-analysis of risk factors related to serious and violent offenders as identified in prior longitudinal studies. Their results suggested the risk factors could be grouped into four main categories: antisocial behaviour, as manifested by physical violence and aggression, and involvement in substance abuse, criminal activities and other problem behaviour; personal characteristics, such as gender, ethnicity, IQ, psychological conditions and school performance; family characteristics, such as having antisocial or abusive parents, or coming from a broken home or a home with poor parent-child relations; and social factors, including disrupted social ties and associations with antisocial peers. Others have focused primarily on the protective factors associated with delinquency. In his extensive review, Howell (2003) suggests that individual factors, including high IQ, intolerant attitudes towards deviance, guilt, trustworthiness, high accountability and a general positive orientation; family factors, including strong relationships and communication with family members; school factors, including strong commitment, motivation and high educational achievement; peer factors, such as having nondelinquent friends; and community factors, including residing in a nondisadvantaged neighbourhood or a neighbourhood with low crime rates can protect youth from delinquency, even where risk factors are present.

Yet other studies have examined the utility of various risk and protective factors in explaining misconduct across different contexts, such as by life stage. In their meta-analysis of predictors of violent offending, Lipsey and Derzon (1998) also examined two distinct life stages: ages 6-11 and ages 12-14. Their results suggested significant variation in the importance of these predictors at different periods of adolescence. For example, having a juvenile offence in the early period was a much stronger predictor for early violent offending compared with later violence. Substance use showed a similar pattern. Conversely, the importance of interpersonal relations such as involvement with delinquent peers was a much more important predictor of offending during between ages 12-14 than it was between ages 6-11.

Another approach is to examine factors across social settings, such as through cross-national comparisons. Farrington and Loeber (1999), for example, compared results from two longitudinal panel studies, one conducted in London, England, and one conducted in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA. Results of the comparison produced relatively consistent findings across settings. Three quarters of the risk factors identified as predicting delinquency in London were also found to predict delinquency in Pittsburgh. Equally important was the comparability of findings which failed to predict delinquency across the two settings: two thirds of the factors failing to predict delinquency in London also failed to predict delinquency in Pittsburgh.

Some differences across cultural context, however, have been found to be important for delineating specific risk and protective factors related to offending. Homel, Lincoln and Herd (1999) found risk...