Wheat, meat under threat.

• Position: Agribusiness

If by the time this article hits the streets the war in Iraq is over, then Australia's farm exporters can breathe a sigh of relief.

If the conflict is still raging, then it means bad news for a sector already hit hard by drought and the rising Australian dollar. Australia's farm exports need the war to end quickly, and to be contained within Iraq only, to minimise the damage being felt.

Wheat is the export most seemingly at threat. In the past few years, Australia's wheat exports to Iraq have averaged at around two million tonnes, or $800 million, a year. That amount made Iraq Australia's biggest wheat customer and Australia Iraq's biggest wheat supplier. Wheat has already suffered. Iraq has contracted to buy one million tonnes of Australian wheat in 2003, halving last year's purchases because of Australian support for the present US-led strike.

Australia also faces the possibility of losing its big wheat market in Iraq to the United States through a post-war US administration of the Gulf country. AWB, Australia's national wheat exporter, has already made moves to head off this development.

Concern is also high that existing Australian contracts for the sale of one million tonnes of wheat to Iraq in 2003 might not be honoured and efforts...