Australian Economic Review

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• Issue Information
• The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump and Mr Biden

  Max Corden and Ross Garnaut published ‘The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump’ in this journal in 2018. This paper examines what has transpired in the US economy against that article. It notes continuity in budget and trade policy from the Trump Presidency to the Biden Presidency. The continuity in macro‐fiscal and trade policies is accompanied by a significant departure in the focus of fiscal expansion: Mr Biden's strong support for decarbonisation. The article applies Max Corden's approach to international economics to the question: should Australia emulate Mr Biden's combination of budget, protection and decarbonisation policies?

• Labour Mobility With Vocational Skill: Australian Demand and Pacific Supply

  Can new channels for mid‐skill labour mobility simultaneously enhance the welfare of Australia and the Pacific Region? Answering this question requires forecasting Australian demand for vocationally‐skilled migrants over the next generation, and the potential for Pacific supply of those migrants. We project demand for such mid‐skill migrants over the next three decades by combining data on trends in the demand for basic tasks with data on trends in native investment in education commensurate with those tasks. We estimate that the Australian economy growing at historical rates through the year 2050 will demand approximately 1.6–2.1 million foreign workers with Technical and Vocational Education and Training. A large share of these could be supplied from the Pacific Islands with sufficient investment in training, with direct cooperation from Australian employers, and targeted access to the Australian labour market.

• Can Pre‐recorded Evidence Raise Conviction Rates in Cases of Domestic Violence?

  This paper explores the association between pre‐recorded evidence and court outcomes in cases of domestic violence. Net of controls and time fixed effects, we find that cases with pre‐recorded evidence are 3.4 percentage points more likely to result in a conviction. This increase occurs through three channels: a 5.6 percentage point increase in the probability of a conviction among (the one in four) cases that proceed to a defended hearing; a 2.4 percentage point increase in the probability of a guilty plea; and, a 2.4 percentage point decrease in the probability that the prosecution withdraws their case.

• Distributional Comparisons Using the Gini Inequality Measure

  This article is aimed at undergraduate and graduate economics students, as well as public sector economists, who are interested in inequality measurement. It examines the use of the Gini inequality measure to compare income distributions. The implicit distributional value judgements are made explicit, via the use of a particular form of Social Welfare Function. Emphasis is given to the interpretation of changes in inequality.

• Unpaid Work—What Does It Matter?
• Gender Gaps in Unpaid Domestic and Care Work: Putting The Pandemic in (a Life Course) Perspective

  Our paper examines  trends in gender inequalities in unpaid domestic and care work over the short‐ and long‐term in Australia, including assessing the impact of the COVID‐19 lockdowns. We use the concept of time—historical, biographical and transitional—as a framework for our analyses. Drawing on data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, we find wide and continuing gender gaps in unpaid work over the past two decades. We demonstrate that parenthood is a far greater producer and exacerbator of gender inequalities in unpaid domestic and care work than COVID‐19 lockdowns.

• Redefining Parent's Unpaid Labour: Distinguishing Errands from Housework for Targeted Mental Health Policy

  Studies of the association between unpaid housework and wellbeing, especially for parents, has produced either negative or inconclusive results in previous studies. One potential oversight is that ‘housework’ often includes activities with a counteracting effect on mental health. By employing the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) data set that differentiates ‘housework’ from more routine tasks included in the ‘errands’ variable I illustrate the difference in the pattern of how these variables are linked to parents' mental health. By identifying specific groups of unpaid tasks that are most detrimental to mental health, policymakers can prioritise these areas, ensuring that negative associations are not wrongly attributed to all housework activities.

• Division of Household Labour and Fertility Outcomes Among Dual‐Income Australian Couples

  Gender revolution theories of fertility posit that when employed women have extensive child care and household responsibilities, they opt to reduce family size. This study examines how household gender inequality influences decisions to have children. Several possible mediators, including wellbeing, relationship quality, and changes in desired family size, are examined. Results from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey show that household inequality reduces the likelihood of third births when both parents work full‐time. This is mediated by relationship satisfaction: when men contribute more to household labour, their partners are more satisfied, which is associated with increased fertility.

• Evaluating Policy Impact: Working Out What Works

  Randomised trials frequently produce surprising findings, overturning conventional wisdom. During the twentieth century, randomised trials became commonplace within medicine, saving millions of lives. Randomised trials within government can now be conducted more cheaply, using administrative data. Just as it might be considered unethical to conduct a randomised trial if a program is indisputably effective, it might be considered unethical not to conduct a rigorous evaluation if a program lacks evidence. Developed within a robust ethical framework, and alongside community consultation, better evaluation can help governments save money and address social disadvantage.

Featured documents

• Teaching Public Economics with Special Reference to Australian and US Cultures

  This article discusses how teaching public economics is, and should be, related to national cultures. The article shows how the US culture of distrust of government influences the two major US texts (Rosen and Gayer 2014; Gruber 2016) that dominate the teaching of public economics in Australia and...

• Markets, Monopolies and Moguls: The Relationship between Inequality and Competition

  Analysing private market research data, we estimate the degree of market concentration across 481 industries in the Australian economy. On average, the largest four firms control 36 per cent of the market. Some industries are considerably more concentrated. In department stores, newspapers, banking,...

• Too Much of a Good Thing? Australian Cash Transfer Replacement Rates During the Pandemic

  During the early stages of the COVID‐19 pandemic in 2020 the Australian federal government temporarily expanded the level of cash relief available to the working‐age population through supplemental benefit payments, a wage subsidy and allowing lump sum withdrawals from private pensions. Here we...

• JobKeeper: An Initial Assessment

  We present details of the design and implementation of the 2020–2021 JobKeeper program and review the literature on its impacts. JobKeeper stimulated the macroeconomy and restrained job loss in the downturn. But because the program was not narrowly targeted, the cost per job saved was high and the...

• Designing Personal Income Tax and Transfer Reforms: Alternative Modelling Approaches

  Decisions regarding personal income tax and transfer reforms are inevitably subject to value judgements. Hence, there is a crucial role for policy analysis in which the implications of clearly expressed values are considered. Tax models play a central role in such analyses. This paper reviews a...

• The Australian Economy in 2021–2022: The Virus Strikes Back

  This article summarises developments in the Australian economy in 2021. The recovery that was underway from the COVID‐19 recession was interrupted by the second wave of the pandemic and the associated policy responses, particularly in Victoria and New South Wales. We discuss the challenges facing...

• The Economic Impacts of the COVID‐19 Pandemic in Australia: A Closer Look at Gender Gaps in Employment, Earnings and Education

  Three years into the COVID‐19 pandemic, this article considers the longer‐lasting economic impacts on the Australian workforce through a gender lens. Using Australian Bureau of Statistics data, it analyses changes in employment, earnings and educational participation relative to the pre‐pandemic...

• Labour Mobility With Vocational Skill: Australian Demand and Pacific Supply

  Can new channels for mid‐skill labour mobility simultaneously enhance the welfare of Australia and the Pacific Region? Answering this question requires forecasting Australian demand for vocationally‐skilled migrants over the next generation, and the potential for Pacific supply of those migrants....

• The Effects of Product Standards on Trade: Quasi‐Experimental Evidence from China

  Using China Compulsory Certification (CCC) as a case study, we investigate how compulsory certification schemes impact China's imports. A difference‐in‐difference approach is used with China customs data to measure the impact of CCC on imports. Our findings show that the CCC regulation increases...

• Fifteen Years of a PBRFS in New Zealand: Incentives and Outcomes

  This article examines the transformation of New Zealand universities following the introduction in 2003 of a performance‐based research fund system. The analysis, based on a social accounting framework, utilises longitudinal researcher data available from three full assessment rounds, in 2003, 2012 ...